Will Trey Lance Ever Get Another Chance?

Teams never seem to learn that drafting a QB from an FCS school this high never ends well. Unfortunately, there will probably be more in the future.

Well, can’t say Trey Lance being traded to the Dallas Cowboys was one of the answers on my NFL bingo card this year. Crazier things have happened though, I guess. But how did we get here? There's a lot to unpack and I'm still trying to figure out if Trey Lance is just bad or if he just hasn’t gotten the opportunity in a system that fits him. Let's go over the events that led to this and dissect it.

Trey Lance in college

            Lance played three seasons at North Dakota State from 2018-2020. While he was there for three seasons, he really only played one full season which was in 2019. His stats that season were very good throwing for 2,786 yards, 28 TDs, 0 INTs, and a completion percentage of 66.9. While the stats were impressive, especially throwing zero interceptions, his competition was very bad. NDSU plays in the football championship subdivision, or the FCS, which is not in the FBS. This means the level of competition they play every week is not competitive. This is evident by the fact that since 2011, NDSU has won the FCS championship nine times out of 12 seasons. They're like the Alabama of that division. The only difference is that there are a lot of great teams in the FBS year in and year out. Lance wasn’t able to showcase his skills again and prove he could be consistent because the following season was when COVID-19 happened. He only played one game and his stat line was average going 15-30 with 149 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT.

One Of The Worst Draft Trades Of All Time

            With a limited amount of tape from one season, the San Francisco 49ers did the unthinkable. They traded all the way up to select Lance with the third overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft. To this day I am still shocked at what their thought process was for that. When I saw they traded all the way up, I was confident it was for Ohio State QB Justin Fields, who I saw as the second-best QB in the draft. It just made sense. He was a proven winner, and he was a great thrower as well. Sometimes I wonder what makes a lot of these “draft experts” experts when they say things like “Lance has a higher upside than Fields”. Anyways, what makes this trade so bad is what they gave up to trade up. They gave the Miami Dolphins THREE first-round picks and a third-rounder. What did those picks turn into for Miami you may ask? Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb were the main players of those picks. Three players who are some of the best at their positions. Talk about getting fleeced. You can argue this was worse than the Ricky Williams trade in 1999. Both are terrible regardless. What puts the Lance one at the top for me though is the fact that they could’ve stayed where they were at 12 or gone up to like 7 and still got a great player. Here are the next 10 selected after Lance: Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Penei Sewell, Jaycee Horn, Patrick Surtain, Devonta Smith, Justin Fields, Micah Parsons, and Rashawn Slater.

49ers QB Inconsistency

            It's hard to find any flaws in the 49ers roster. Though the QB position has undoubtedly been their most inconsistent one for some time now. Most NFL fans would agree that the 9ers team has been a good QB away from winning the Super Bowl since at least 2019 when they lost In the Bowl against the Chiefs. People always praise how they develop their players and while they are for sure one of the top teams at developing, they can't seem to develop the most important position. It must be tough for the 9ers fans to know that you’re almost there every year, but having a good QB is stopping your team from truly being unstoppable. I think their window is also closing because very soon they will have to pay all their top players top money who are still under the rookie contract. Guys like Nick Bosa, Brandon Aiyuk, and Javon Kinlaw just to name a few.

What Does This Trade Mean For The Cowboys?

            I always find it funny when there is a trade like this, and people overreact. I’ve been seeing a lot of people talking about how this is bad for Dak Prescott because they don’t believe in him, and that Lance will replace him after he throws picks. I know some of them are trolls, but there are genuinely a lot of people who don’t think Prescott is good and that he can easily be replaced. Well even as an Eagles fan, I am not one of those people. Prescott has been consistently good since he came into the league in 2016 and the Cowboys would not be good without him. It's very easy to see that. Just look at the season he was out most of the season. They won six games and looked awful on offense. So, this pick means absolutely nothing more than Lance is there to be Prescott’s backup. He couldn’t even beat out Sam Darnold for the backup spot in SF and people really think he’s coming for Prescott's starting spot. I get the hate for Prescott though because he plays for the Cowboys, and everyone likes to hate on them. But people can’t be this delusional. I just want to point out as well that everyone likes to take jabs at the Cowboys for not winning the Super Bowl since ’96 but the 9ers also haven’t won one since ’95 so I think they should get the same treatment for going for cold even longer.

In Conclusion

            This Lance trade is only getting this much attention because the Cowboys were involved in it, and he was the third pick in the 2021 draft when he had no business being selected that high. Do I think he has potential? Absolutely, but when drafting that high you shouldn’t go off potential. Imagine how much better the 9ers would be if they selected Fields or Mac Jones who were both proven winners in the FBS. I am thankful though that they didn’t do that and decided to go with Lance instead. I’m sure the other teams in the NFC West are just as thankful as well. I hope Lance can figure it out, get healthy, and ball out, but only time will tell if he ever gets another real chance.

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