Is This The Next Zach Wilson?

Every year it seems GMs of NFL teams fall in love with a player and draft him earlier than he should go. Let’s take 2021 with Zach Wilson for example. He had all the physical tools sure, but his stats weren’t great. Especially considering the level of competition he played was way below average. He didn’t get much hype to be the 2^nd overall pick until his pro day when he made an absurd pin-point throw off his back foot for 60 yards. It’s hard to believe that one moment like that can catapult you to the 2^nd pick, but it happens all the time in the NFL. There are countless other examples in recent memory like 2017 when the Bears took QB Mitch Trubisky 2^nd overall, and 2021 right behind Wilson when the 49ers traded up to draft Trey Lance. It seems the position teams will reach for the most is the QB position, and for good reason. It is the most important position after all. However, these reaches often cripple the teams for years, especially when they trade up and give up a lot for said player. The only exception to that so far is the 49ers. They’re an anomaly and they also have a great all-around team. They can afford to miss at QB when the rest of the team makes up for it.

This year’s QB draft class is absolutely stacked and there are at least five QBs projected to go in the 1^st round. Those players are USC’s Caleb Williams, UNC’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. I think every single one of these guys deserves to go that high. However, the number they are projected is where I see the mistake.

Before the whole draft process started, McCarthy was projected late first-early second round in the draft. As the process has gone longer, he has moved up on the board. Now he is projected to be going top-three. There’s a difference in where you draft QBs. QBs selected in the top five are usually expected to start right away. QBs selected 11^th overall to the 3^rd round have a chance to start and compete to be the starter but aren’t guaranteed the position. There lies the problem. I've seen plenty of mock drafts that have teams like the Vikings and Giants trading up almost 10 spots and giving up a lot to move up to three and take McCarthy. His odds in betting apps have gone up from +2500 all the way up to +500, which is an insane amount.

This whole situation is just so similar to Wilson when he got drafted. McCarthy played two full seasons at Michigan and threw 44 passing TDs with nine INTs. He also had a top-five defense both years to go along with a top-five rushing attack. The team didn’t ask him to take over games very often because they were usually up by 25+ at halftime. In the close games, it was often the rushing game that would carry. In the CFP championship game vs Washington this past year, Michigan ran for a whopping 300 yards and won that game by three scores. Goes to show how dominant Michigan’s team was this year. Like Wilson, when it comes to the physical tools, he has all that. There’s no denying that. He can make any throw, he can run, he can manage the game when they’re up, but so can every other guy in the NFL and in this year’s class. The other guys in this year’s draft class have all been tested and didn’t have the luxury of having a top defense and rushing attack.

Do I think McCarthy should go in the 1^st round? Yes. Do I think he should go top-three though? No. I believe drafting him in the middle of the round would be the best situation for him to develop behind a proven veteran. Though if you ask me as an Eagles fan, I do hope the Commanders take him 2^nd overall because I don’t believe he would succeed on that team. they’re also in our division so we don’t want that team to be successful.